All Hanson

Pauline is BACK!

Well, sort of. Earlier this week she threatened to run for election to the Federal Parliament.

As you would no doubt know, this would not be the first time that Ms Hanson had sat in the Federal Parliament. But a lot of water has gone under the bridge since that time.

Her maiden speech is now an important part of Australia’s history, encapsulating as it did the fears many felt about an “Asian invasion”. It really is worth a read to in full, if you never have before.

As history tells us, Ms Hanson lost her seat in 1998, and then became a serial candidate. That run of candidatures was somewhat hampered by the disintegration of the One Nation Party, as well as her imprisonment.

But One Nation never really died – they appear to still have a presence of sorts, although it is a long time since the party had anything resembling actual influence in the Australian political scene.

So, are we likely to see Pauline elected later this year? It seems unlikely.

Whilst Australians’  fear of foreigners is ever-present, it seems likely that the Katter Australia Party is going to be sweeping up a large number of One Nation’s natural base. It also won’t help that the KAP has a real foothold in Queensland (not only Ms Hanson’s home state, but also the scene of One Nation’s greatest electoral triumph).

But, if Ms Hanson is somehow elected, it is possible that she may wield a significant amount of power.

At present, the Senate make-up is as follows:

31 Labor
34 Coalition
9 Greens
1 Democratic Labor Party
1 Independent
76 Total

Every election a little over half of those are up for re-election. The following numbers are already locked in for the next 3 years:

13 Labor
16 Coalition
6 Greens
1 Democratic Labor Party
36 Total

This means, if the Coalition is to win an outright majority, the Coalition needs to win 23 seats out of the 40 on offer

Anthony Green has written a brilliantly detailed post here about why that is unlikely. In short, it requires an absolute demolition of the ALP.

But let’s assume the Coalition gets close due to the ALP doing something incomprehensibly stupid between now and the election (which, frankly, does not seem completely out of the question). Let’s also assume that Ms Hanson somehow gets up, presumably as the sixth senator from Queensland.

If you are scoffing at that idea, have a look at this post I wrote over on my own blog about how close Ms Hanson got to being elected in NSW last time round. It’s not a ridiculous proposition.

In those circumstances, the Coalition may need to rely on Ms Hanson to pass legislation through the upper house. Which, all brings me (eventually) to the point of this piece – if the Coalition did have to rely on Ms Hanson, precisely which pound of flesh would she demand in return?

Obviously that is a complicated question, and there would be all sorts of issues that Ms Hanson (who, for all her failings, is not stupid) would have to wrestle with. Furthermore, it has been 15 years since Ms Hanson has actually held a seat in Canberra.

A good start, I would suggest, would be to take a flick back through her speeches. So, I did that.

Multiculturalism

Foreign Aid

Foreign investment

Globalisation

Gun Control

Indigenous Affairs

Native Title

Prisons

Death Penalty

Christmas

Sarcasm

Obviously this is a sample. And even if Ms Hanson is thrust into a position of power, there is no guarantee as to what she might do or what she might demand in return for her vote.

But my point is that, unsurprisingly, Pauline Hanson’s policies are a little more complex than one might suspect. What remains to be seen is what chance she gets to demonstrate it.

Andrew may be a criminal defense lawyer from Sydney, but he’s actually a pretty cool guy who you’d love to hang out with. He writes regularly on his blog A State of Mind and for the Kings’ Tribune, and he tweets as@mrtiedt.